401k: BUY (signal on 2/16, bought in COB 2/17)
VXX: No position
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2020
Sunday 3/6 addition:
Here I will post an alternative long term count. I actually view this as more likely than the count presented yesterday. Here, May 2015 is the end of the BULL market, with no truncation. This BEAR market would likely progress beyond 2020. The A wave (5 waves) ending in 2017 or early 2018. I have waves 1 and 2 of A already completed, and right now we are nearing the end of 2 of the nasty wave 3 lower. The worst plunge would unfold during the next few months, followed by quiet recovery during the summer, and a smaller plunge this fall.
Saturday 3/5 addition:
Since we are ending our uptrend shortly, I wanted to present 2 possible scenarios using the Weekly chart. I use an all-hours chart, in which the August 2015 bottom was actually a failed event (whereas the cash market it made a lower low).
Here I present my count with the premise that August 2015 was actually a wave 4 correction in a BULL market. Wave 5 failed in early Nov 2015. This is when I begin my BEAR market counting, with Wave 1 lower ending in early Feb 2016, and have us currently in Wave 2 higher.
There are 2 options if this is Wave 2 higher. First, the entire wave is about to end (probably near 2040), and a nasty Wave 3 lower is about to start. Second, and far less probable, but still possible, is wave 2 will be a zigzag. In this case the B wave of 2 may or may not make a new low compared to the Feb 2016 bottom, before a sharp C of 2 higher ends Wave 2 at a later date.
The fact is we wont know until way too late whether its a B of 2 or 1 of 3 lower, since both may end near the same spot. What can we do? Just follow the technical indicators, do not get to celebratory that Wave 3 lower has started, just ride those waves.
If we are about to start Wave 3 lower, assuming Wave 2 ends near 2040, what are some targets. The minimum based on Wave 1 length would be 1748.1, with the more likely range between 1567.71 and 1275.81 based on 1.62 and 2.62 times the Wave 1 length.
The market continues to sub divide which to the layman looks choppy. I inspected the
1-minute all hours chart and believe that we had a long complex 2 between 2155 UTC 3/3 and the 1456 UTC low today (3/4). This is followed by another but smaller impulsive 1 until 1619 UTC 3/4. It looks like this is followed by another 2 until 2004 UTC 3/4.
My indicators are still bullish. What’s very interesting, is the internals $NYAD and $NYUD had huge gains today. That tells me there is a ton of underlying buying action. This would make sense as we still need a pop to 2025 to reach the end of yellow 3.
Time continues to drift away and while I am not married to it, the solar eclipse on 3/8 and 3/9 seems like a great time for “The Top” above 2025. For this to happen, I would think that the yellow 4 may be shallow, but run sideways for a bit near the 100dma. We’ll take another look at the open of futures Sunday night.
Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).