VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022
$NYAD was +4.98% and $NYUD was +0.42% today.
With 95% certainty, I am calling the uptrend from 11 Feb complete. I will gain 5% more confidence should the small scale waves continue to evolve favorably, along with the $VIX rising above the descending blue trendline with conviction.
On the all-hours Daily, you can see SPX has closed below the W2 red channel two days in a row. This while MACD has turned negative with RSI descending lower, from extremely overbought conditions. A turn here? Me (continue to) likie.
Let’s zoom in to the 5-minute chart. I am calling 2048.9 the end of w2 higher from last evening, which was a healthy a-b-c retrace of the initial wave down. Now another small wave down and counter-trend higher today.
I drew two converging blue trendlines which appear to form a triangle. And while today’s small wave down has already retraced 0.618, I wonder if this afternoon was just a small b wave down of 2, with a final 5-wave c wave higher underway. If this is the case, 2044.8 looks to be a target as its the 0.764 retrace, and the 2043 pivot, with this being the final kiss before a downward tumble.
Here is an update on how hourly $VIX is doing with its 140-hour BB and the descending blue trendline. Today was the first daily close above the trendline. Notice how $VIX has settled back to it earlier today? This could again be the final kiss, before a strong upward move to come.
Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).