Monday 3/28/2016

Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
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401k: SELL
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

 

 

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$NYAD was +4.98% and $NYUD was +0.42% today.

With 95% certainty, I am calling the uptrend from 11 Feb complete. I will gain 5% more confidence should the small scale waves continue to evolve favorably, along with the $VIX rising above the descending blue trendline with conviction. 

On the all-hours Daily, you can see SPX has closed below the W2 red channel two days in a row. This while MACD has turned negative with RSI descending lower, from extremely overbought conditions. A turn here? Me (continue to) likie.

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Let’s zoom in to the 5-minute chart. I am calling 2048.9 the end of w2 higher from last evening, which was a healthy a-b-c retrace of the initial wave down. Now another small wave down and counter-trend higher today.

I drew two converging blue trendlines which appear to form a triangle. And while today’s small wave down has already retraced 0.618, I wonder if this afternoon was just a small b wave down of 2, with a final 5-wave c wave higher underway. If this is the case, 2044.8 looks to be a target as its the 0.764 retrace, and the 2043 pivot, with this being the final kiss before a downward tumble.

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Here is an update on how hourly $VIX is doing with its 140-hour BB and the descending blue trendline. Today was the first daily close above the trendline. Notice how $VIX has settled back to it earlier today? This could again be the final kiss, before a strong upward move to come.

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24 comments

  2. jin

    i am truly impressed at the resiliency and strength of the markets despite negative retail data (70% of economy), downgrades to GDP, shooting at capitol hill. a bull can take this as an extreme positive since markets should have taken all these negative news with a lack of liquidity to about 30 handles lower but it was basically unchanged at the end of the day. i have thought markets should peter out overbought conditions since about 2 weeks ago and have been completely wrong. markets look very easy but that is always in hindsight. lots of smart money and most on twitter seem bearish so i am thinking the pain trade is to grind higher until there arent that many bears out there. too many people calling it a “top” so i am guessing it’s a not a top yet

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
    • stormchaser80

      Its based on hope, not the economy. Yellen dovish = rally? OK. Her masters told her they need more time to sell. Saw NASDAQ almost had same amount of new lows as new highs today. hmmmm.

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  7. Amel

    Yea, Tony, you’re are a bit annoying…you can play with or against the market, if you are right people will respect it. Don’t need to brag about it.

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  8. Pheonix Rising

    Purely from a physiological point of view. I am always keenly aware of the comments on different blogs. Bearish, bullish ect. I am always on the other side of the trade, in other words I am in the minority. Although I have some very good indicators, I always make sure I am in the minority whether my indicators say to jump in or not.. It is very easy to get caught up in being a bear due to the media. A classic example is from the bottom of 2009 to 2011. On most blogs, the majority were BEARISH. Most investors were always picking tops to short. only to have their head handed to them on a platter. With the resent comments showing up, I am now entering the idea of going short. ( I have a small short as of today) Before making any trade, I always check in with my gut feeling. If I am tense and nervous, I get up from the computer and go for a walk. 4/5 this works for me from making a bad trade. With the resent comments on this particular blog, we are close to correction down to the 1995 level at LEAST.

    I wish everyone well with their trades. All the best.

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    Reply
    • stormchaser80

      Great points. I love your comment about psychological views of the heard. Also, the taking a short walk before a trade if hesitant. My bearish views are mainly formed by the Hindenburg Omen work I have done, see the top menu for the link.

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