Tuesday 3/29/2016

Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
Disclaimer: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/disclaimer/
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401k: SELL
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022


$NYAD was +11.88% and $NYUD was +2.35% today.

I’ve heard of a butterfly and bat pattern, but today I found a new one. Its called crow.


Sometimes, crow is all that will do.


Now that’s out of the way, I skimmed a few comments. First off, you can say what you want to me, that’s fine. But don’t plan on swearing or getting into it with the other readers.

Lessons. Don’t let an opportunity to grow pass you by…

  • I need to scale back on percentage of confidence, though technically with 95% one should expect to be wrong 1 out of 20 times.
  • In the future, starting later this evening, I will post a series of indicators in a table and show daily if they are bullish or bearish. That will help me assign confidence.
  • Listen to that nagging feeling in your gut. I never really liked the short term count as the down waves were not as impulsive as I would have liked.

With all that said, I’ll get to the markets, but check back in a few hours for more information.

Big picture, still haven’t recaptured the red channel that $SPX has been trading in since 11 Feb. Daily MACD (now negative) and RSI have not made new highs yet though price did.


So we now have an answer for why the down waves did not look as impulsive as I would have liked. It’s because it was a correction lower (of a correction higher since 11 Feb). And since an expanding triangle should finish the last wave of a trend, it was not valid earlier (rather was invalidated with today’s new highs). So I propose we are still in the green expanding diagonal. 


Wave 4 overshot to the downside. I see no reason why wave 5 won’t do the same to the upside, temporarily recapturing the red channel. It looks like A and B of 5 are done, with a 5-wave C in progress. 2070 offers significant resistance of a pivot plus the Y=1.382*W Fibonacci level of the first part of wave 2 higher (since 11 Feb).


Another interesting observation I have is we have basically not gone anywhere since 17 March, yet it sure does seem like an endless rally is taking place.

Hourly $VIX never did rise above the blue downtrend line with conviction, falling below for a second time. Interestingly, $VIX has not made a lower low, and I can count on the hourly chart a possible wave 2 lower ending here. If that’s the case I would expect the high to be put in early in the morning.


Lastly, I noticed that High Yield is well off its highs, as are cumulative $NYAD and $NYUD. 2 broader indices, NYSE and Wilshire 5000 failed to make new highs as of yet.


Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).



  1. jlisi6

    Take a look at a six month chart of the QQQ’s. From the Feb. 11 low, count a five wave “A” rally from 95 to about 103, a “B” wave retracement in two trading days to about 100, since then tracing out a 5 wave diagonal triangle (the “C” wave to end the entire counter trend rally). A large unfilled gap, major resistance and the top trend line of the diagonal triangle all converge in the next few trading days at the 110 level (give or take). I think it’s the best roadmap to the current setup.


      • jlisi6

        If it’s not obvious, we are in the fifth and final wave of the diagonal triangle. Hitting the 110 mark as I type this morning. We can bounce around for a few days on either side of this resistance/unfilled gap/trend line hit, but if we close strongly above it and hold above it, there is no other interpretation than a test of the old highs and probable new highs coming (for the Dow and the Nasdaq).


  2. student8888

    Thanks for the update Storm. Topping is definitely a process. Wonder how much more time and price up before we pullback…Is the bear market over if we close the month over the 10 month MA currently around 2019?


  3. Evixfel

    Hi thanks for sharing your views!! Just wondering…
    1)do u think CB can prevent technical damage forever? (As we’ve witnessed ytd and constantly throughout March)
    2) do you view events as just part of the technical structure/process or would u react and assess technically to these events?
    3) Based on the quarterly candle for SPX, would it affect anything technically if we can sustain the tail (close above weekly 50MA), i.e. turn bullish? We are only 2 sessions from month end
    4) Where do you think VXX (not VIX) would go if SPX goes 2070 (in the worst case scenario)?

    I feel this rally is kind of testing our patience and faith here. . . . I think your really a seasoned trader and knowing your stuff. May the Market Gods bless you and all bears here! Tq in advance and hope to hear from you soon!

    Liked by 2 people

    • stormchaser80

      1) No way. It’s just leading us to a larger and larger bubble. This has been going on since 2009
      2) I’m strictly a technician anything else leads to way too much bias of analysis
      3) Something to keep an eye on, but not enough to change my view

      Hey thanks!


  4. Tom Smith

    Auntie Janet’s dovish comments today can mean only one thing: back up the truck. She was sending the clearest possible signal to go all in. With respect, you can draw all the lines in the world on your charts, but it doesn’t mean a thing. We’re headed much, much higher – and after today any dip is now clearly a big buying opportunity.

    Liked by 1 person

    • Kweesh

      Storm are you likely to provide free updates longer than May? So far your calls have not played out and I personally would like to see a fair bit of success before I am willing to subscribe to your site. I have followed Greedometer for a while but have decided that the models there are crap. That site goes very quiet when things go against it and there is never any acceptance of wrong calls but the FED is blamed for everything. From what I’ve seen you are able to accept a wrong call and reassess which I quite like. Unfortunately the catapult higher in stocks over the last couple days shows investors have maximum confidence in the FED. A bear market cannot happen in these circumstances but we can definitely see some big moves to the downside usually followed by up to 100% recoveries.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Tom Smith

        Agreed. Stormchaser needs to provide a free service for at least 6 months so we can fully judge his analysis and track record. So far it isn’t working out at all and I wouldn’t pay a cent for anything he’s posted.


      • stormchaser80

        Hi Tom. You are being a bit unfair. I had been bullish for much of the run higher, just got out early. I will continue to adjust. It’s your money and you are the only one who can decide what to subscribe for. Some followers know me from other sites with long track records, but I guess you are new to my work.


      • Kweesh

        Tom i think that’s too harsh. Storm’s analysis is good but the trick is adapting to all the free money bombs being thrown around by central banks. If the analysis can take that all into account well then this is well worth paying for. But as I said, need to see enough positive results to subscribe which isn’t a big ask really.

        Liked by 1 person

      • stormchaser80

        Nope. Quite reasonable! I fear my being forthright with folks is causing a lot of angst. But its better than surprising folks later that I am working on a new site. You will get what you pay for. And we will all be better for it!


      • stormchaser80

        I think you’re being unfair. Through much of this upturn I have been quite right. I just got out early. I’ve addressed your concerns in today’s post.


  5. jin

    i am going to assume the crow references are that your calls in your proposed timeframe has been wrong with your VXX position expiring in mid april. i am not here to gloat nor mock you as that is cruel and a fellow trader should never do that as i am a firm believer in karma – what goes around comes around. i have traded options for a living for a few years and it is truly a hard product to trade and manage effectively and profitably. i think the shorter one’s trading horizon is then i think randomness and luck are much a bigger part than skill and that is why i have a tough time when i hear and see people thinking they can be successful day traders. i am sure there are some out there but very few i reckon. i still do like your swing trading as it is around 5-15 trading days and given the right circumstances, i think it should work as long as you dont become too confident. i am eating crow too as i have been wrong in my VXX position but i initiated it completely independent of anyone’s advice,blog, twitter, etc. it was based on some fundamental metrics starting to break down coupled with potential future catalysts.
    i am still learning and let’s see if we can help each other.

    Liked by 1 person

    • song1337

      Options on the VXX would be suicidal at this point. I was looking at the May 20th $25 calls and they went down at least 60% in the past 2 weeks. I am glad I only bought $VIX not the options. I lost about 16% so far with an average cost of $20.47. Frankly, if I had more investment capital, I would buy more VXX at this point but I am fully invested. Topping is a process and can exhaust the most experienced traders. I think today is the end of this rally. Unfortunately, it didn’t stop at the previous resistance levels of 2000, 2026 and 2048. I think Storm would be proven correct soon but the unfortunate thing is the timing of the trade.


      • stormchaser80

        Exactly. I would buy more too if I could. Takes several days to throw money into my account. Gotta just let this one play out.


    • stormchaser80

      Thanks. Its tough to make specific calls on a daily basis. But I rather be wrong than to be wishy washy, it may go up, may go down. What good does that do?


  6. Valley

    Your charts are nice and I appreciate your sense of humor with the crow. PALS, my system was wrong this week with low to occur today or tomorrow. So, lost some money in options trade.

    I am trading using seasonals, tides, etc. and find that they work most of the time in any market conditions though they didn’t work this week.

    Long term I consider a mania rally in market a possibility in next two years, lead by commodities.

    Liked by 1 person

    • stormchaser80

      LOL thanks. Laughing was the only thing preventing me from drinking too much last night 🙂 I am quite familiar with your work and appreciate your input too!


    • Pheonx Rising

      Hii valley, fully agree with your longer term analyze for a mania rally. Before than thou, I believe we will get one very quick swift down draft to fake every one out before that mania rally starts. I remember 2009 low as if it was yesterday. Most traders ( newbies) were trying to short the market for two years and losing their shirts. Ironically enough stormchaser, may end up being correct going into 2022 with the sp down to 666. But before than, we are going to see a lot of the capital flow from around the world going into the markets here North America. With the social unrest in Europe, many investors will be sending their money into the sp, dow ect for safe haven due to the currency risk in Europe. We are indeed, in interesting times where Mr Market is going to take most traders money over the next few years. All the best every one.


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