VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022
$NYAD was +11.88% and $NYUD was +2.35% today.
I’ve heard of a butterfly and bat pattern, but today I found a new one. Its called crow.
Sometimes, crow is all that will do.
Now that’s out of the way, I skimmed a few comments. First off, you can say what you want to me, that’s fine. But don’t plan on swearing or getting into it with the other readers.
Lessons. Don’t let an opportunity to grow pass you by…
- I need to scale back on percentage of confidence, though technically with 95% one should expect to be wrong 1 out of 20 times.
- In the future, starting later this evening, I will post a series of indicators in a table and show daily if they are bullish or bearish. That will help me assign confidence.
- Listen to that nagging feeling in your gut. I never really liked the short term count as the down waves were not as impulsive as I would have liked.
With all that said, I’ll get to the markets, but check back in a few hours for more information.
Big picture, still haven’t recaptured the red channel that $SPX has been trading in since 11 Feb. Daily MACD (now negative) and RSI have not made new highs yet though price did.
So we now have an answer for why the down waves did not look as impulsive as I would have liked. It’s because it was a correction lower (of a correction higher since 11 Feb). And since an expanding triangle should finish the last wave of a trend, it was not valid earlier (rather was invalidated with today’s new highs). So I propose we are still in the green expanding diagonal.
Wave 4 overshot to the downside. I see no reason why wave 5 won’t do the same to the upside, temporarily recapturing the red channel. It looks like A and B of 5 are done, with a 5-wave C in progress. 2070 offers significant resistance of a pivot plus the Y=1.382*W Fibonacci level of the first part of wave 2 higher (since 11 Feb).
Another interesting observation I have is we have basically not gone anywhere since 17 March, yet it sure does seem like an endless rally is taking place.
Hourly $VIX never did rise above the blue downtrend line with conviction, falling below for a second time. Interestingly, $VIX has not made a lower low, and I can count on the hourly chart a possible wave 2 lower ending here. If that’s the case I would expect the high to be put in early in the morning.
Lastly, I noticed that High Yield is well off its highs, as are cumulative $NYAD and $NYUD. 2 broader indices, NYSE and Wilshire 5000 failed to make new highs as of yet.
Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).