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VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022
$NYAD was -18.56% and $NYUD was -6.26% today.
Finally a broad sell-off! This is close to confirming the change-in-trend that we have been looking for. I want to lose the 2043 pivot with conviction before doing a victory lap, but the evidence sure is mounting!
Price dipped below the blue 20dma for a time today, then ended the day right at the ma at 2043. The upper band is curving lower so without a significant move higher it will continue to do so. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma.
After reaching the 2070 pivot yesterday, we bolted for (and slightly past for a time) the 2043 pivot.
Price made a steep decline today, allowing the final label for 2 higher to be placed. This wave down is 1 of 3 lower. I’m not sure that we are done with it yet based on some technicals, but any further dip will likely be realized overnight. Once 1 of 3 finishes we expect 2 of 3 higher to unfold. If 1 of 3 is complete or nearly so, I expect 2 of 3 to retrace between 0.382 (2046.9) and 0.618 (2055.5) with a shot of seeing 0.764 (2060.8) again.
Nice healthy ramp up in VIX today, great to see! We are decidely above the middle of the 140-hr BB for the first time since the second week of Feb (after retesting the yellow descending line yesterday). To me, this is clear evidence that the uptrend is complete. I expect to clear the top of the BB (currently 17.92) next week, if not higher.
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