Monday April 11, 2016

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Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
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401k: SELL
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

$NYAD was +13.06% and $NYUD was +5.45% today.

Another solid day higher with the internals, but did the tide turn late day? I believe the W2 top is in for the move since 11 Feb. Nothing right now looks bullish.

Daily

Ignore the last candle as afterhours trading has begun.

For the thrid day in a row, price dipped below the blue 20dma for a time, then ended the day right at the ma at 2043. Like yesterday, the body of the candle was almost entirely below the 20 dma. Also note the long wick atop the red candle, not a good sign for the bulls (second day in a row). The upper band is trending lower so without a significant move higher it will continue to do so. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma.

The descending trend in volume since early Feb is another warning sign for bulls (the black crosses are the 20 dma of volume). Meanwhile you can see the BB tightening up now,  in fact they are the tightest since 19 August (!!!!!).  This all lines up with the big picture count of a 3 of 3 lower coming!

Some targets would be 2019 (bottom of the daily BB), 2011 (200 dma), 1990 (100 dma). The last 2 targets are trending lower while the first is trending higher.

15-min

Several more bounces off the 2043 pivot. I am wondering if we are finally going to lose the 2043 pivot?

5-min

Today we made a new high at 2063.6, but then quickly reversed. This is an excellent spot for w2 after an a-b-c move higher.

VIX (Hourly)

VIX had a nice positive day mainly due to the selling toward the close. We are already nearing the top BB on the 140-hr chart. Notice below we are at the highest position in the BB since the second week of Feb. The tide has turned.

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