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401k: Recalculating signals
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022
Instead of topping the market decided it was consolidating instead, really quite remarkable. It was pointed out to me in an email the other day that this options expiration is the most bullish typically of any.
A couple of changes today. First, you’ll notice I am showing the Total Market A-D line performance and cumulative volume. This is in reaction to a conversation I had on Twitter with one of the readers last evening. I had pointed out that $NYAD/$NYUD include ETFs and are not reliable as in the past. I use the stock only for the Hindenburg Omens that I track, so why use $NYAD and $NYUD here? Well, the reason was that its available at all trading intervals so I could have indicators set to the hourly chart. But seeing the difference in $NYAD and !ADLINENYA yesterday highlighted to me that I should stop using $NYAD and $NYUD. So now that I’m stuck with a daily index, might as well use the Total Market, right?
Ignore the last candle as its from after hours trading.
SPX has breached the upper Daily Bollinger Band today by the most since 9/18/2014. The next day in 2014 was a top and the market went from 2021 to 1819 in the next 19 trading days! The daily SPX Bollinger band continues to narrow, the tightest since 19 August (!!!). This suggests the upmove is not the big move we were looking for!
Despite the market ramp, volume was still quite low compared to the down days this year. The descending trend in volume since early Feb is another warning sign for bulls (the black crosses are the 20 dma of volume).
Price jumped well above the 20 dma today. Blue 20dma is still well above the orange 50 dma and we remain above the 100 (red) and 200 (purple) dma. The orange 50 dma is about to cross the red 100 dma.
The other change today is I decided I am no longer going to display Elliott Wave counts in the short term. Doing a blog everyday has highlighted to me that they just dont work in real time. I knew it was a low percentage shot, that’s why I had been doing my EW last after technicals. Yet I continued to struggle of late as 5-waves turned from impulsive to just an A wave, etc. Just too many possibilities. I want to eliminate showing any bias here.
We cleared the 2070 pivot once again and are now testing the 2085 pivot.
VIX continued the downtrend in the short term, but what is interesting is that is has not made a new low while the market has made a new high during the past few weeks. We continue to see values in the upper half of the Bollinger Band, with %Bollinger Band continuing its uptrend. The 140hr $VIX Bollinger Bands are still narrowing, which suggests a large move is coming, and not in the current direction of the market.
Old posts: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/
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