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401k: BUY (see below)
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022
$NYAD was +8.58% and $NYUD was +0.35% today.
Signals went to a BUY however, we are at such a critical junction right now, its prudent to wait things out. No moves are being made on my end.
The 1st Quarter came and went with little fanfare. Originally I was quite dismayed. However, lets take a look back at how recent quarters have ended.
Lets look at the data since the Market top 10+ (!) months ago. The last day of each quarter is a vertical red line. I’ve noticed the end of September 2015 quarter end started a huge rally after a significant downturn. After the end of December 2015, the market tanked. At the end of Q1 2016, we have had an exhaustive rally for the past 7 weeks. If this trend of significant turns with a new quarter continues, I expect another downturn to start now. Note how high the MACD is right now!
That got me thinking, how common is this MACD level for all-hours SPX? Well, before November of 2015, you have to go all the way back to March of 2000 (!), which so happens to have been the market peak before the bear market unfolded.
Ok so today was the last day of the month. So its a good time to look at monthly charts. Using a simple monthly MACD on SPX, track that blue line back in time. Woah, Monthly MACD has never been higher since at least 1990. Ok, Stormchaser, maybe we are just in the best economic times since 1990.
Not so fast! GDP now, from the Atlanta FED shows the current forecast for Q1 2016 as of March 28th. It’s projecting a GDP of +0.6%. Now how could we have the hottest market as measured by monthly MACD since at least 1990, yet only +0.6% growth? The only answer to this question is that we are in the largest bubble (not created by the Internet, nor using Homes as ATMs…and we all know how those ended!), but one so large that only all the Central Banks in the world had to combine forces to create.
Well my friends, the Central banks are now in a deflationary currency war. This is what is going to pop our manic bubble. It had started with commodity-based fields and is expanding across the economy.
I put the work for new signals on hold today to rather start the final push for the new website. This is NOT an effort to start any subscription service earlier than planned, rather I have grown tired of the limits imposed by this current webpage architecture (not only for me, but for all the users as well!). Once this new site is up (and it will be FREE through at least May 2016), you all will know either through Twitter, StockTwits, or just checking this webpage.
On the daily, still haven’t recaptured the red channel that $SPX has been trading in since 11 Feb. Daily MACD (still negative) and RSI have not made new highs yet though price did yesterday. No new high today.
Drilling down to the 15-minute all hours SPX chart, you can see I removed a lot of the technical levels that I had been using to aid in the roadmap of this large W2 higher. Yet no new counts and I will explain why next. I have the old W2 channel in red, revised lower bound from the mid March low, and kept the important Pivot levels in tact for later use.
On to the 5-min all hours SPX chart. The blue 5 from yesterday remains in tact, as does the green expanding diagonal lines. No micro count as to be honest, I could fudge just about anything in since that blue 5. No need to introduce bias, will let the market lead the way for now.
Hourly $VIX has recaptured the descending blue trendline, and closed right on it today. Could this finally be the last time $VIX and the trendline are to meet? Only time knows if $VIX starts to rocket higher.
Cumulative $NYAD made new highs today. High Yield and cumulative $NYUD still have not.
Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).