Tuesday April 5, 2016

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Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
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401k: SELL
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

$NYAD was -21.14% and $NYUD was -4.70% today.

Sorry folks, thought I published at 18 UTC, but instead just saved my draft. Bummer.

On the brighter side, very nice day of selling Tuesday especially looking at the internals. I am quite confident now that the final high is in! In addition to what I am going to present below, I wanted to comment on other obesrvations. At -40.48, $NYMO finished the lowest since 11 Feb. Percent of S&P500 stocks below 20dma=60, the lowest since 16 Feb.

Daily


SPX is nearing the blue 20dma on the daily chart, still well above the 200dma. Note how unless we bottom soon, the top BB is turning downward.

15-min

Above you can see we bounced on the 2043 pivot.  I don’t believe we go much above 2070 (pivot) in the foreseeable future.

5-min

Looking at the 5-minute squiggles, the best I tell is that we are in for a sharp rising C wave of 2 higher overnight. I expect at least 2062.2-2066.2, but could easily see 2071.1 based on Fib retrace of W1 lower. Also remember that 2070 pivot! If this is the case, tomorrow should be fun for the bears as we head into W3 lower!

 

VIX (Hourly)

Another reason I think we have topped, is we have reached the middle of the 140-hour BB on the VIX for the first time since mid Feb, while having a positive divergence (blue line) between %B and VIX levels. Today we gapped above the yellow decending trend line. This should put us in the clear to roam higher. Could we retest lower first thing in the morning, sure, but I think the rest of tomorrow belongs to the bears 🙂

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Monday April 4th, 2016

 

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Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
Disclaimer: http://navigatethemarketstorm.com/disclaimer/
Follow me on Twitter @Stormchaser80 to get new post notifications

 

401k: SELL
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

$NYAD was -20.24% and $NYUD was -4.29% today.

Big picture, I have the top of the Super Cycle in 2000. The economy during the 1990’s was going quite well, even though the end was a run-up due to the Internet bubble. After the 2000-2002 correction we rallied again, though that was a larger bubble fueled by using homes as an ATM. After a sharp correction in 2007-2009 we have rallied again even more substantially. One would think that our economy has to be doing quite well. However, its all about the Central Banks, all of them combining forces to throw huge sums of money out of helicopters. Instead of spurring organic growth in the private sector, it has led to the largest of all bubbles. Such low rates have driven folks to go into much riskier assets for growth including stocks. What goes up, must come down. 

The monthly MACD topped at the end of 2014. It did so at the highest levels since at least the early 1990s!! This has set us up for a substantial bear market. The FED has run out of bullets, rates are already near zero. Yellen will be shooting blanks. 

download

And here is more proof. Right from the St. Louis FED, Median Household Income.

salary

On to the current market. Friday I showed some charts from the USA, Germany, and Japan, all showing a potential for a rounded top (especially Japan and Germany). Another interesting observation is with volume. One would expect volume to increase to support the trend. However with the case of this uptrend since mid February, volume has been drying up. Coupled with the potential rounded top, this spells trouble for the bulls.

download (1)On the 5 minute chart, I’m able to label impulsing waves lower and corrective waves higher today. So that’s a really good sign for a turn with a potential top of this W2 higher since 11 February starting at 1120 UTC today. There is plenty of time for this to go wrong but given other technicals and $VIX, I’m going to call it a 60% lock right now.

download (3)

As of 06 UTC, I have updated the microcount on the 5 minute chart. This is more of a best guess than anything else:

5

$VIX behaved by rising today! Note the ascending blue trendline of the %B below the $VIX chart. Things are finally going as planned. %B bottomed when $VIX was closing below the BB. 2 additional lows were made, however $VIX was firming up within the BB.

vix

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Friday April 1st

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Below we are going to discuss today’s market action, and longer term pattern seen including a potential rounded top viewed on indices across the globe.

 

 

Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
Disclaimer: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/disclaimer/
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401k: BUY (see below)
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

1

$NYAD was -12.83% and $NYUD was -1.74% today.

Signals were so very close to going back to a SELL today. $NYAD and $NYUD show there was some underlying selling going on despite new highs.

GDP now, from the Atlanta FED was updated today. The current forecast for Q1 2016 as of today was an upgrade of +0.1% to +0.7%. Time to party! 

gdpnow

On the daily, still haven’t recaptured the red channel that $SPX has been trading in since 11 Feb. Daily MACD (still negative) made a lower high, RSI made a higher high. 

D

Drilling down to the 15-minute all hours SPX chart you can clearly see the ping pong going on between the 2043 and 2070 pviots.

15

 

I was initially quite happy when the market was down this morning. But then I got to my computer and zoomed in, and cursed as it was clearly a corrective move lower.

5

Hourly $VIX jumped well above the descending blue trend line this morning only to lose it again. Pretty soon, I’m going to lose it too! 🙂 Anyhow I drew in the yellow descending trendline based on the peak this morning. $VIX made a lower low at the close, and the only consolation prize is that the %B made another higher low.

vix

High Yield and cumulative $NYUD still have not made new highs.

As I zoomed out on the hourly chart, it sure does appear to be a rounded top. First I’ll show the SPX, then the DAX and finally the Nikkei. This pattern can be seen on many indexes across the globe.

r1

r2

r3

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Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

New Site Beta Testing

Do you like to be the first in line, get the latest gadget first just to see the reaction of your jealous friends? Well, this may be right up your alley. 

My new site is online. It will be 100% free through at least May 2016. I just wanted to roll out the new features as this site was quite limited in functionality. You have to sign up for a free user account. That’s it.

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If you have any technical problems, please e-mail me at Stormchaser80llc@gmail.com

Thanks!

 

Thursday 3/31/2016

Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
Disclaimer: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/disclaimer/
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401k: BUY (see below)
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

1
1

$NYAD was +8.58% and $NYUD was +0.35% today.

Signals went to a BUY however, we are at such a critical junction right now, its prudent to wait things out. No moves are being made on my end.

The 1st Quarter came and went with little fanfare. Originally I was quite dismayed. However, lets take a look back at how recent quarters have ended.

a

Lets look at the data since the Market top 10+ (!) months ago. The last day of each quarter is a vertical red line. I’ve noticed the end of September 2015 quarter end started a huge rally after a significant downturn. After the end of December  2015, the market tanked. At the end of Q1 2016, we have had an exhaustive rally for the past 7 weeks. If this trend of significant turns with a new quarter continues, I expect another downturn to start now. Note how high the MACD is right now!

That got me thinking, how common is this MACD level for all-hours SPX? Well, before November of 2015, you have to go all the way back to March of 2000 (!), which so happens to have been the market peak before the bear market unfolded.

b

Ok so today was the last day of the month. So its a good time to look at monthly charts. Using a simple monthly MACD on SPX, track that blue line back in time. Woah, Monthly MACD has never been higher since at least 1990. Ok, Stormchaser, maybe we are just in the best economic times since 1990.

c

Not so fast! GDP now, from the Atlanta FED shows the current forecast for Q1 2016 as of March 28th. It’s projecting a GDP of +0.6%. Now how could we have the hottest market as measured by monthly MACD since at least 1990, yet only +0.6% growth? The only answer to this question is that we are in the largest bubble (not created by the Internet, nor using Homes as ATMs…and we all know how those ended!), but one so large that only all the Central Banks in the world had to combine forces to create.

gdpnow

Well my friends, the Central banks are now in a deflationary currency war. This is what is going to pop our manic bubble. It had started with commodity-based fields and is expanding across the economy.

I put the work for new signals on hold today to rather start the final push for the new website. This is NOT an effort to start any subscription service earlier than planned, rather I have grown tired of the limits imposed by this current webpage architecture (not only for me, but for all the users as well!). Once this new site is up (and it will be FREE through at least May 2016), you all will know either through Twitter, StockTwits, or just checking this webpage.

On the daily, still haven’t recaptured the red channel that $SPX has been trading in since 11 Feb. Daily MACD (still negative) and RSI have not made new highs yet though price did yesterday. No new high today.

2

Drilling down to the 15-minute all hours SPX chart, you can see I removed a lot of the technical levels that I had been using to aid in the roadmap of this large W2 higher. Yet no new counts and I will explain why next. I have the old W2 channel in red, revised lower bound from the mid March low, and kept the important Pivot levels in tact for later use.

4

On to the 5-min all hours SPX chart. The blue 5 from yesterday remains in tact, as does the green expanding diagonal lines. No micro count as to be honest, I could fudge just about anything in since that blue 5. No need to introduce bias, will let the market lead the way for now.

3

Hourly $VIX has recaptured the descending blue trendline, and closed right on it today. Could this finally be the last time $VIX and the trendline are to meet? Only time knows if $VIX starts to rocket higher.

5

Cumulative $NYAD made new highs today. High Yield and cumulative $NYUD still have not.

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Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Wednesday 3/30/2016

Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
Disclaimer: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/disclaimer/
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401k: SELL
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

1
1

$NYAD was +15.98% and $NYUD was +4.44% today.

Signals are still on a SELL. Tomorrow is the end of the quarter. I wonder if the big boys will buy or sell…?

I did some thinking last night and decided instead of coming up with technical signals to post here with the limitations of the current software I use, I would invest some money into more advanced and user friendly software. So hang tight for a bit since I have a ton of ideas for custom signals that I must code and backtest first. But this change is definitely coming. One thing for certain, my site will continue to evolve, forever. With my personality type, I naturally have a ton of passion for my interests. Sort of like a snowball rolling down hill.

Second, I have decided to give everybody the first month free at my new site whenever that goes operational. I don’t know when that will be, but I said before you would have free posts until at least June 1st and that hasn’t changed. I want to build the new site right, so if I go over my deadline, that’s ok. The free month at the new site will give you time to see the look and feel of it, along with debug anything that is not right as well as allow you to post suggestions. I am sure you will enjoy the new features I will roll out including the premium commenting software and guest posts.

Big picture, still haven’t recaptured the red channel that $SPX has been trading in since 11 Feb. Daily MACD (still negative) and RSI have not made new highs yet though price did.

2

You want to see something funny? That blue 5 I placed yesterday was about spot on for this morning’s high. I did move blue 2 to the left at the earlier low to make 3 look “right”. The market briefly traded back in the red channel on the 5 minute chart, but then lost it. This morning’s high potentially finishes the run up since 11 Feb, but what do I know?  But everything about the expanding diagonal looks right to me. Time will tell. 

3

Hourly $VIX made a lower low, however it did so right near the lower 140-hour BB. Note how earlier in the month the low did pierce the lower BB. 

4

NYSE and Wilshire 5000 made new highs today. High Yield, and cumulative $NYAD and $NYUD still have not.

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Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).

Tuesday 3/29/2016

Stormchaser80, L.L.C.
Disclaimer: https://stormchaser80.wordpress.com/disclaimer/
Follow me on Twitter @Stormchaser80 and StockTwits @Stormchaser80LLC to get new post notifications

401k: SELL
VXX: APR 15 2016 20C
Long Term: Bear Market, targeting SPX <666 by 2022

1
1

$NYAD was +11.88% and $NYUD was +2.35% today.

I’ve heard of a butterfly and bat pattern, but today I found a new one. Its called crow.

crow1

Sometimes, crow is all that will do.

crow2

Now that’s out of the way, I skimmed a few comments. First off, you can say what you want to me, that’s fine. But don’t plan on swearing or getting into it with the other readers.

Lessons. Don’t let an opportunity to grow pass you by…

  • I need to scale back on percentage of confidence, though technically with 95% one should expect to be wrong 1 out of 20 times.
  • In the future, starting later this evening, I will post a series of indicators in a table and show daily if they are bullish or bearish. That will help me assign confidence.
  • Listen to that nagging feeling in your gut. I never really liked the short term count as the down waves were not as impulsive as I would have liked.

With all that said, I’ll get to the markets, but check back in a few hours for more information.

Big picture, still haven’t recaptured the red channel that $SPX has been trading in since 11 Feb. Daily MACD (now negative) and RSI have not made new highs yet though price did.

2

So we now have an answer for why the down waves did not look as impulsive as I would have liked. It’s because it was a correction lower (of a correction higher since 11 Feb). And since an expanding triangle should finish the last wave of a trend, it was not valid earlier (rather was invalidated with today’s new highs). So I propose we are still in the green expanding diagonal. 

3

Wave 4 overshot to the downside. I see no reason why wave 5 won’t do the same to the upside, temporarily recapturing the red channel. It looks like A and B of 5 are done, with a 5-wave C in progress. 2070 offers significant resistance of a pivot plus the Y=1.382*W Fibonacci level of the first part of wave 2 higher (since 11 Feb).

4

Another interesting observation I have is we have basically not gone anywhere since 17 March, yet it sure does seem like an endless rally is taking place.

Hourly $VIX never did rise above the blue downtrend line with conviction, falling below for a second time. Interestingly, $VIX has not made a lower low, and I can count on the hourly chart a possible wave 2 lower ending here. If that’s the case I would expect the high to be put in early in the morning.

5

Lastly, I noticed that High Yield is well off its highs, as are cumulative $NYAD and $NYUD. 2 broader indices, NYSE and Wilshire 5000 failed to make new highs as of yet.

==========================================================================

Note: I want you to know that although I have taken the steps to start the subscription business, I will continue to offer the free service through May 2016. I want there to be a good record of (hopefully) accomplishment. Plus I don’t want to spring anything on anyone unfairly. I thought 3 months was enough lead time. I also want to present something nice, and well worth your visit (and subscription).